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Executive Summary
Background and rationale. With close to 200 million people, and a population growth
estimated at 3% per year, Nigeria is the most populous country on the African continent.
Nigeria is also the largest economy of the region. Like other middle-income countries, Nigeria
faces significant and persistent poverty and inequality. Since 2018, Nigeria is home to the
largest number of poor people in the world. 62.6% of the country’s population live under the
absolute poverty line. Poverty is more acute in rural areas (52%). Major factors contributing
to rural poverty include low agricultural production and productivity, limited opportunities for
value-addition, challenges of marketing capacity, poor yields in quality and quantity, and
significant deficits in support systems such as infrastructure, access to productivity-enhancing
inputs, financial backing, commercial orientation, and effective policies, as well as
environmental degradation and the effects of climate change. These challenges limit prospects
for rural households. To feed its growing population Nigeria has reached a critical level of food
imports, spending over USD 1.5 billion a year on agricultural imports. With competing needs
on the national budget, this situation threatens national food security. Over 43% of Nigeria’s
population cannot afford a nutrient-adequate diet. The high sensitivity of the agricultural sector
to increasing climate change and climate variability combined with high poverty rates are the
main sources of Nigeria’s vulnerability to food insecurity and malnutrition. Climate risks and
weather-related factors will increasingly have negative impacts on agricultural production.
Climate projections indicate historical increases in temperature and variations in precipitation
with early dry seasons and shorter rainy seasons.